Opening a bar in Texas: what the filings say happens next
37,065 licensed addresses · 45,374 venues on record since 2007 · every figure below is measured, not surveyed
Plenty of pages will tell you how to get a TABC permit. Almost none will tell you what happens after you have one, because that needs data nobody publishes. Texas does: every mixed beverage permit holder files monthly, so the full record of who opened, how long they lasted and what they took is public. This page is that record.
How long an operator lasts
Each row is every operator who began at least that long ago, and the share still filing that many years later. An operator here is one taxpayer at one address; a venue that changes hands starts a new run.
| Reached | Operators who could have | Did | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 68,978 | 64,885 | 94.1% |
| 2 years | 66,284 | 56,643 | 85.5% |
| 3 years | 63,471 | 49,047 | 77.3% |
| 5 years | 57,976 | 38,761 | 66.9% |
| 10 years | 40,429 | 20,795 | 51.4% |
| 15 years | 26,479 | 11,230 | 42.4% |
The median run is 2,039 days, about 5.6 years. That is longer than the trade's folklore suggests, and it is not the same as success: an operator who sells up at four years and one who closes the doors both end a run here.
How many stop each year
Of the venues trading in each year, the share whose last ever filing fell in that year.
| Year | Venues trading | Filed for the last time | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 14,222 | 1,313 | 9.23% |
| 2012 | 14,327 | 1,006 | 7.02% |
| 2013 | 14,707 | 1,194 | 8.12% |
| 2014 | 14,818 | 1,070 | 7.22% |
| 2015 | 15,138 | 1,071 | 7.07% |
| 2016 | 15,613 | 1,061 | 6.80% |
| 2017 | 16,101 | 1,186 | 7.37% |
| 2018 | 16,497 | 1,040 | 6.30% |
| 2019 | 17,091 | 1,123 | 6.57% |
| 2020 | 17,221 | 1,318 | 7.65% |
| 2021 | 17,516 | 712 | 4.06% |
| 2022 | 18,891 | 1,105 | 5.85% |
| 2023 | 19,974 | 1,191 | 5.96% |
| 2024 | 20,943 | 1,375 | 6.57% |
| 2025 | 21,614 | 1,542 | 7.13% |
2021 is the outlier: 4.06% in the year pandemic support was flowing, against a long-run average of 6.9%. The rate has risen again since. Note that this measures a permit going quiet, which includes a sale where the buyer files under a new permit, so it is an upper bound on closures rather than a count of them.
Growing or shrinking
Trading venues with a monthly series steady enough to support a growth figure at all — where filings are too erratic to be read, we do not print a number.
| Up on last year | 4,751 |
|---|---|
| Down on last year | 6,130 |
| Median change | -2.0% |
More venues are shrinking than growing, and the median venue is 2.0% down year on year. That is the market you would be entering, and it is the single most useful thing on this page.
The address matters more than you think
Bars outlive their owners, and the record does not reset when a business changes hands — if you know how to read it.
| Licensed addresses on record | 37,065 |
|---|---|
| Addresses that have had more than one operator | 10,837 (29.2%) |
| Venues spanning an ownership change | 7,729 (17.0%) |
Nearly three in ten licensed addresses in Texas have hosted more than one operator. Before you sign a lease, the useful question is not what the space looks like — it is what everyone who traded there before you took, and how long they lasted. That is on the venue page for the address.
Can you see trouble coming?
Partly, and it is worth being precise about how much.
We tested one signal — a fall of 15% or more in half-year receipts — across 197,818 venue-year observations back to 2015. Of the venues it flags, 20.3% had stopped filing within a year, against 6.4% of all trading venues. About one in five, against one in sixteen.
What it is not: three-quarters of venues that go quiet raise no flag at all, so this is a way to prioritise a shortlist, not a prediction about any single business. Anyone selling you a closure score should be asked for their recall figure.
Look up the address
Search any venue in Texas, or the address you are considering, and see who has traded there and for how long.
Sources: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Mixed Beverage Gross Receipts, and the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission, via the Texas Open Data Portal. Figures are as filed and subject to restatement. This is market data, not legal, financial or investment advice.